eToro

eToroeToroeToroeToroeToroeToroeToroeToroeToroeToroeToroeToro

Home | Download | Getting Started | What is Forex | Articles | About eToro | Contact eToro

Market Indicators

Market Indicators

World events affect the Forex Market. Or rather, world events affect supply and demand forces, which in turn affect the Foreign Exchange market.

Keeping up to date with what is happening in the world is essential if you want to be a successful trader. We continually see that the Foreign Exchange market undergoes movements soon after major news and/or economic reports are released. The size of the country determines the amount, and the frequency of its news/reports releases, and therefore, it may be more useful (especially when you first start trading) to trade currencies of economies that have plenty of releases (such as, for example: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF).

Useful Information:

Always Remember that if a country has a strong performing economy then its currency will also be stronger. The performance of a country's economy can be affected by high employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization, and gross domestic product. It is also affected by low government deficits and by small fluctuations in inflation.

To learn more about a country's economy look for reports on: (examples below are from US economy)

  • Employment Growth
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Trade Balance
  • Interest Rate decisions
  • Retail Sales
  • Durable Goods
  • Inflation reports
  • Foreign Purchases report (TIC Data)

What do these reports mean?


Employment:

US: Jobless Claims is released weekly and it measures how many people filed for unemployment insurance for their first time. The less people have applied, the better the economy is doing, because unemployed people tend to spend less money, which has a bad effect on the nation’s economy.

US: Nonfarm Payrolls is released monthly and it measures the number of new jobs created (it excludes the farming industry). The more new jobs, the stronger the nation’s currency is, because the more people work, the more money they earn, the more money they are likely to spend.

Consumption:

Core PCE Price Index: measures the rate of inflation experienced by people; it reflects the price change in consumer goods and services (it excludes Food and Energy). Large price changes have a negative effect on the economy, because they introduce uncertainty, and uncertainty inclines people to spend less.

Retail Sales: is released once a month and measures the value of retail sales. A rising trend means that the nation’s economy is growing stronger, because it means that people are spending more.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Annualized: measures the value of all goods and services that are produced by the nation’s economy. A rising trend means that the nation’s economy is growing stronger. It encourages people to invest in the domestic stock and bond markets, and because it attracts foreign investors.

Trade Balance: measures the value of the difference between imported and exported goods and services. A positive trade balance means that more goods and services were exported than imported. A rising trend means that the nation's currency is growing stronger, because the higher the demand for exports, the higher the employments and production rates in the exporting country. This usually means that foreigners will convert their currencies to purchase the currency of the exporter.

CPI—Consumer Price Index In simple terms, CPI measures the increase of price in a fixed basket of goods and services (such as food, transport, housing etc’). Higher CPI means that the price of the basket has increased and it now costs more to buy the same basket of goods. A rising trends has a positive effect on the economy (and consequently on the currency), for it reflects that people are able to purchase the goods and services despite the price increases.

Real Estate:

US: Pending Home Sales: measures activity in existing (not new) home sales. This includes single-family homes, condos and co-ops. The higher the demand for housing, the better the economy is doing, because people must feel comfortable enough in order to invest in homes. Also, such investments are usually accompanied by purchases—electronic equipment, furniture—and revenues for realtors, both which are good for the economy.

US: Housing Starts measures how much construction began on new residential buildings. The higher the number, the better that nation’s currency, because it indicates that the construction industry is healthy and that people are investing in it.

Manufacture:

US: ISM Mfg Index measures the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A rising trend means that the nation's currency is growing stronger, because purchasing managers are good indicators; they have access to a company’s performance, which oftentimes goes hand in hand with overall economic performances.

US: Industrial Production measures the value of output produced by factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend means that the nation's currency is growing stronger, because high values indicate that much is being manufactured and sold, and hence that people earn and spend money.

Euro: Producers Price Index examines differences in the selling prices of goods and services within Euro-zone producers. Since producers tend to increase retail prices as a result of higher production costs, PPI may be counted as an indicator for inflation. A higher PPI may result in higher interest rates determined by the European Central Bank. A falling PPI points at declining prices, hence a hint on upcoming economic recession.

Rate Announcements:

GB: GBP: BOE Announcement — the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes every month on where to set the nation's short-term interest rate.

EU: EU:ECB Announcement — the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council votes every month on where to set the union’s short-term interest rate.

US: FED Announcement — the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes eight times a year.

Shortly after each vote, the outcome is released (the BOE Announcement; the EU:ECB Announcement, and the FED Announcement). It is accompanies by a brief commentary on the economic conditions that effected the outcome. Interest rates depend mostly on inflation. The objective is to keep prices stable, so when inflation rises above an annualized rate of 2%, banks will usually raise interest rates as to bring prices down. High interest rates attract foreign investors, hence, they increase the demand for that nation's currency. This is to say that a rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's economy.

FOMC Meeting Minutes:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes give people insight into the decision that have been made with regard to interest rate and policy shifts.

Surveys:

DE: ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) Survey provides the opinions of financial experts with regard to economic outlook for Europe. Every month the difference between investors that expect a growth in the economy and those that expect a decline is measured. .

US: Chicago PMI measures the health of the Chicago business environment. Every month purchasing managers respond to a survey with regard to their organization's activity (whether it is higher than, the same as, or lower than it was in the previous month) in terms of output, purchases, employment, inventories, orders, and prices.

NET TIC—Treasury International Capital (TIC) Reviews the flow of money market funds (such as stocks, bonds etc’) to and from the United States. The key figure, expressed in millions of dollars, represents the difference between American spend of foreign securities and foreign spend of American securities. This is a major indicator of the American economy and gives insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollars. For example, if the US purchased $5 billion in US securities and foreigners purchased $20 billion in long-term US securities, then the net reading would be $15 billion.

Some extra points to note:
  • In general it can be noted that news release that follow expected reports do not result in strong market movements.
  • The Difference between the market expectations and the news release may result in market volatility which in turn may lead to a developing trend in a specific direction.
  • These kinds of opportunities are usually short-lived and may last for only a few minutes or as little as a few seconds.
  • Markets that see constant movements occur will generally not be as strongly effected by a news release.

 

Home | Download | Getting Started | What is Forex | Articles | About eToro | Contact eToro

eToro (EN) | eToro (NL) | eToro (DE) | eToro (FR) | eToro (AR) | eToro (ES) | eToro (IL) | eToro (CN) | eToro (RU) | eToro (IT) | eToro (DK) | eToro (SE)

Forex Articles

Trading in the Forex market can bring potential rewards, but can also be risky. You have to be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market.

© Copyright 2007 eToro Forex. All rights reserved. www.etoro-forex.com